Friday, January 12, 2007

Assam: The economic discrimination argument that we use....

I have seen posts after posts condemning the exploitation of resources in Assam by outsiders, namely North Indians. A number of articles both online and print, have attributed this phenomenon as reason for the deep rooted alienation of people of Assam from the mainstream. This has been the simmering point of discussion on all forums such as this. My take is that, this argument goes against the basic principles of global economics. Let me give you some background:

Which is the country in the world that has the greatest trade deficit (i.e; amount of goods sold is lesser than amount of goods consumed). United States of America. Everything from Jeans, Cars, Computers, Undergarments, Pet food to Software is manufactured/developed/produced outside the US. The textile, automotive industry all but disappeared from the face of North Carolina and Detroit in the 80’s. They saw this coming, and instead of raising the protectionism bandwagon, looked the problem in the eye and re-invented themselves. That’s what makes a great country and a great community. One can continue to blame problems on the others that we ourselves create and wallow in the self-assurance that we are trying to change the system by raising the so-called burning issues, by taking up arms and asking for a separate identity. The malaise runs deeper. Why is it preposterous to think today that China is exploiting the US, despite the huge Chinese- US trade deficit? The reason is, that US has created these huge corporations that control the channels through which Chinese industry gets its share of business. This means, that while china dominates through manufacturing efficiency, US dominates through sheer enterprise and innovation. There is a lesson for us here.

To say that we are being exploited is like pointing a finger at others, because when you do that, three fingers are pointing towards your own self. You cannot be exploited until and unless you allow yourselves to be exploited. The question to ask is, how many Dhirubhai’s has Assam produced, despite the rich vendor and forward integration opportunities that petrol producing regions offer. From the refinery in Bongaigaon, there are so many process by-products coming out. Which freshly minted bright mind has taken a project plan to this refinery to build on such by-products, a Naphtha unit, a cracker plant…. the possibilities are endless. Why do you have to wait for Central or state government dole? What did Gujarat have at the time of independence? Oil had not been discovered yet when independence happened. But how come they have since become such a thriving petroleum by-product processing hub in the country? That’s the entrepreneurship story within.

We all know that the emotion of enterprise has no borders. I touched upon this fact in the first paragraph. So what prevented people like Bajaj, Birla and the Ambani’s from investing big time in Assam? Since the 1970’s the region has been on boil. Every time an investment proposal came, it got lost in the virulence of the political situation. So Assam ended up having a large number of warehouses and distribution companies for other Indian manufacturers of FMCG, Consumer Goods and Industrial Machinery. This is typically, the lowest and the most obvious end of the enterprise food chain. In-short, Assam became a “consumer economy”. Unlike the US though, the enterprise ecosystem in Assam could not leverage the power of the consumer, because there was no critical mass within. So you bought and bought and bought, cribbed and cribbed and cribbed, while the growth initiative was lost in the war cries that was raised by extremist outfits and their equally blind opponents in the state and centre.We became the people who demanded, the center and the state became the people who very selectively and conditionally dispensed. No one wants to take from a power who is considered to be domineering, so even as we took what we got, the feeling of alienation never left our hearts and the vortex got deeper and deeper.

Now let us pursue the argument that things would be different if Assam was given the right to Self-determination. You could “run” the refineries, the petrochemical plants, the team gardens, the mines etc etc. “RUN” is the operational word here. Very easy to just say, but as any experienced energy or operations professional will tell you, not so easy to execute. Where will you get the experts, machinery, specialized manpower, R&D competence from? To run such businesses you need all of this. Assam has a good ecosystem of such experts, but one would still need outside help. Let us see, not India of-course, the former colonialists, China? Russia? or the US? What makes you so sure that they will not extract their pound of flesh? China today runs a good %age of oil basins in Africa for their Governments. They have the required expertise. Even if you produce and refine, you will have to find export markets, the pipelines to feed the export markets and last but not the least, deliver this at a cost that is competitive with say what the GCC countries produce and deliver at. Why am I making this complicated argument? To prove the point that the “pound of flesh” will have to be given, to make Oil or any other natural resources the money spinner everyone thinks it is. Colonial India might have extracted its own “pound of flesh” through its PSU’s that are operating in Assam, but make no mistake the way it operates is very moderate when compared with how the Oil economy works globally. Find out what Shell did to Nigeria and its West African neighbors, and you will know. Saddam Hussein, and the invasion of Iraq, what was the motivator? The PSU’s have been libertine evangelists when compared to other refinery partners independent Assam might consider, to make Oil a commodity worth making money out of. So the whole exploitation argument does not make economic sense, since it is an emotive issue, it is easy for disruptive forces to latch on and paint it in their own color.

Snapshot, the Punjab of 1985: Terrorism both state driven and Khalistan sponsored. Custodial Killings, Army Operations, Rape, Terrorists killing innocents, exodus by non-Punjabi traders etc etc. Rationale for Khalistan: Step Motherly treatment, Self-determination.

Snapshot, the Assam of 1990: Terrorism both state driven and ULFA sponsored. Custodial Killings, Army Operations, Rape, Terrorists killing innocents, exodus by non-Assamese traders etc etc. Rationale for Assam State: Step Motherly treatment, Self-determination.

Snapshot Punjab in 2007: SEZ, IT Hub, Record Wheat production, Hosiery and Textile center, Spare parts cottage industry. Top 5 in human growth indices


Snapshot Assam in 2007: Still the same as 1990

Albert Camus said “Freedom is nothing else but a chance to be better”.

Where will be snatch this freedom from, through the barrel of a gun, though political jingoism or through sheer enterprise and innovation. I will leave it for the “rais” to answer.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Assam shows the weakness of the way unions in india were assembled. Assamese were a good bunch of people and people of all states were welcomed in that state once. Politicians have to be great visionaries; unfortunately, a number of politicians in India are suffering from a desease called opportunisam! They make friendship with even devils for petty political gains that last only a few months or maximum for an year and then people can witness an all out turmoil. When congress was at the central for a few dacades, it wanted to continue the status quo and allowed all devils to do their handiworks provided they did not challenge the Congress, but alas! the devil has transformed itself into a humongus form, and now everyone is condemned to suffer.

First, at the beginning, why on earth the union was divided into small states based on languages? India would have been better off today had it been assembled into four or five regions, instead of states based on languages, and people of each region could have challenged themselves to outsmart other regions rather than working towards the benefit of a particular lingustic group within a state's boundries. When people who speak a different language move into a different state for employment and for other reasons, cunning and interested political party leaders, for their own benefits, mainly for power, initiates or introduces the "son of the soil" concepts to an otherwise innocent locals. Once introduced, the politicans can sit back and relax, but the fire they set will keep on burning destructing every goodwill existed in that state among people. Once Kama Raj had played this game in Tamil Nadu and created friction between Keralites and Tamils; Siva Sena has been playing this desastrous game ever since its advent in Maharashtra and even snatched Bombay from the union and created a huge backlash towards people of other states, especially south indians who has been living in that state for years.

In Mumbai, a taxi driver from Thane is not allowed to pickup a passenger from CST area or Mattunga Area..It is a form of "son of the soil" argument in a subtle level, but, unfortunately, what the proponents of these types of petty politics are not understanding is that a person from Thane, or Mattunga has a right to make a living anywhere in India and all are called and identified as Indians. I think this "son of the soil" argument will make great divide among Indians and in the not so distant future life for common law-abiding people will become very difficult and unbearable. In other world, a large section of the people will be marginalized paving way for greater disharmoney and greater friction among different linguistic groups, and that can hurt the nation's progress more than anything else. As India will be forced to integrate into the global village in the coming years, internal frictions and social disharmoney an negatively affect its efforts..An American born in Califirnia can obtain a job and live in New york without any discriminations, but someone born in Kerala will find it impossible to obtain a job with Maharashtra Govt. Services..or with West bengal govt. services!!

Effects of License Raj and its implications in another post.